Democrat Tameika Isaac Devine in 2021 during her unsuccessful bid for Mayor of Columbia, South Carolina. Devine, who served on the Columbia City Council as an at-large member for almost 20 years, is the favorite to win a special election in South Carolina’s 19th State Senate District on January 2nd, 2024.

Governor Henry McMaster called a special election in South Carolina’s 19th State Senate District, following the death of Democratic State Senator John Scott. Approximately 64% of the district’s voting age population are black and Joe Biden carried the district by a commanding 80% – 19% margin in the 2020 Presidential Election. The district also went uncontested in the past three election cycles with Republicans failing to find a candidate to run against Scott in 2012, 2016, and 2020 (the South Carolina State Senate is only up during the Presidential year). However, Republicans did manage to find a candidate to run in the special election in local conservative activist and real estate agent Kizzie Smalls. Smalls has focused mainly on school choice and other conservative positions on education while touting her pro-business credentials. Despite this, she remains a massive underdog in this heavily blue district.  The favorite is Democrat Tameika Isaac Devine, a former member of Columbia City Council, who previously represented about 20% of the state senate district’s population. Devine represented one of the city’s two at-large city council districts for almost 20 years after being elected as the first black woman to ever serve on the council. In 2021, after Columbia Mayor Stephen K. Benjamin, a Democrat, opted not to run for another term, Devine decided to run for mayor. However, despite the city’s overwhelming Democratic majority (Biden carried Columbia 71% – 28% in the 2020 Presidential Election), Republican city councilman Daniel Rickenmann defeated Devine 52% – 48% in a race that was officially nonpartisan. Rickenmann capitalized on a crime surge in Columbia and ran a strong law and order campaign that was buoyed by a red wave that swept across the nation that year. 

Joe Biden carried South Carolina’s 19th State Senate District, based in Columbia’s northern outskirts, by a margin of 61 percentage points in the 2020 Presidential Election. Black voters make up nearly 65% of the district’s voting age population. 

Learning from her previous loss, Devine has run a campaign focused primarily on public safety, while also championing various progressive causes including abortion rights, economic support for working class families, and climate change mitigation. In the Democratic primary she utilized her balanced approach to win over South Carolina Democrats’ more centrist voters, winning  52% – 45% against Democratic State Representative Kambrell Garvin, who ran to her left. Despite her 2021 loss, Devine appears to be the runaway favorite in the special general election. Not only is she running in a district that is nearly 20 percentage points bluer than the city of Columbia, but she is running against a far weaker Republican in Kizzie Smalls compared to Daniel Rickenmann who was a popular, well known elected official. The special election ballot will also have partisan labels on it, unlike the Columbia mayoral ballot, making it harder for Smalls to win crossover voters. Two other candidates are also on the ballot: Dr. Michael Addison, a semi-retired physician who is running as an independent; and Chris Nelums, a pastor who is running under the United Citizens Party. They should have little bearing on the outcome of the race. Election Forecaster Rating: Solid Democrat (Hold)