The Virginia General Assembly Building. Special elections will take place in each chamber on January 9th, 2024. Both districts, Virginia’s 9th State Senate District and Virginia’s 48th State House of Delegates, are based in solidly Republican Southside Virginia.

Despite winning re-election uncontested in the 2023 Virginia Legislative Elections Republican Les Adams announced that he would vacate the state’s 48th House of Delegates District only a month later. Although Adams didn’t give a reason for vacating the district, he did say he was making himself “available for another position of service.” This set up a special election in the heavily Republican 48th State House of Delegates District which covers the City of Martinsville and parts of Henry County and Pittsylvania County in Southside Virginia. In the 2020 Presidential Election, the 48th District backed Donald Trump by a large 62% – 37% and Republican Glenn Youngkin carried the District in the 2021 Virginia Gubernatorial race by an even larger 68% – 32% margin in 2021. 

A precinct map of the 2020 Presidential Election results in the 48th State House of Delegates District. Donald Trump carried the district over Joe Biden 62% – 37%.

Following Adam’s Decision to vacate the district two major Republicans entered what became a nasty primary: Eric Phillips, a small-business owner, and Will Pace, a former mayor of ultraconservative Chatham, Virginia, and a longtime town councilman. While both candidates ran as conservatives Phillips ran as more of a mainstream Republican, whereas Pace ran as a hard-line Republican. This was best seen in the issues that they focused on throughout the campaign. While Phillips touted his focus on expanding infrastructure access throughout the heavily rural district, Pace ran as a “true conservative” and promised to fight back against the “liberal agenda.” This resulted in Pace getting more support from more conservative local politicians, while Phillips garnered support from multiple Republicans serving in the General Assembly in Richmond. In the final days of the primary, things turned bloody when it was announced that the GOP nominating convention for the district would take place in Pace’s hometown of Chatham, Virginia where he still serves as an elected official. Outraged by the decision Phillips accused Pace of weaponizing his position as chair of the 48th District Legislative to steal the election from the voters. However, Pace’s scheme ultimately failed as Phillips’ supporters mobilized in large numbers to power him to the nomination. 

In the general election, Phillips faced first-time Democratic candidate Melody Cartwright, an exhibit designer who worked at the Museum of Natural History in Martinsville for over 25 years. Cartwright is not well known in the district and is running a nearly non-existent campaign. Additionally, Phillips’ focus on bipartisan issues could make him appeal to independent voters. Thus, it is very likely that Phillips outperforms Trump and possibly Youngkin. Election Forecaster Rating: Solid Republican (Hold)

Republican Eric Phillips, a small businessman, is expected to win the special election on January 9th, 2024 for the conservative 48th State House of Delegates District after surviving a nasty Republican Primary.