Republican Bryan Brinyark is expected to easily win the special election in Alabama’s 16th State House of Representatives District on January 9th, 2024. Brinyark faces a Democrat with strong bipartisan credentials but the partisan nature of this heavily red district ensures Republicans will hold it convincingly.
After running uncontested in 2022, popular state representative Kyle South opted to vacate Alabama’s 16th State House District to take a job as the next president and CEO of the Chamber of Commerce of West Alabama. South, a Republican, was first elected in 2014 defeating a Democratic Incumbent in an area of rural Alabama that is now deeply Republican. The district, which backed Donald Trump in the 2020 Presidential Election by a ridiculously large 86% – 13% margin, includes all of heavily Republican Fayette County as well as even more conservative rural areas within Jefferson and Tuscaloosa County. Demonstrating the heavily racially polarized voting patterns of rural Alabama the district is 86% white and 10% Black, almost mirroring partisan results within the district. Republicans nominated Bryan Brinyark, a longtime attorney who currently serves as a municipal court judge. In the crowded primary Brinyark led the field alongside Fayette County Commissioner Brad Cox, however, neither candidate managed to achieve a majority of the vote creating a runoff matchup between the two candidates. In the lead up to the runoff, both candidates expressed their support for local infrastructure investments, charter schools, and conservative social positions (including banning gender-affirming care for minors). Although both candidates were extremely ideologically similar, Brinyark won by a decisive 5 point margin in the runoff defeating Cox 53% – 47%.
Donald Trump easily carried Alabama’s 16th State House District in the 2020 Presidential Election. Trump won the vast swath of rural territory in Western Alabama by a wide 86% – 13% margin over Joe Biden. Biden only managed to carry a single election precinct in the heavily white district.
Despite the district’s heavily Republican nature, Democrats managed to find a strong candidate with bipartisan credentials to face Brinyark in the general election. Democrats recruited John Underwood, a retired cop who served in the Fayette Police Department from 1995-2022, rising to the rank of assistant police chief. Underwood who goes by “Big John” has also served on the Fayette County Commission for the past 24 years, despite the county’s heavily Republican lean (Trump carried it 83% – 16% in 2020). Underwood is running as a pragmatic common-sense Democrat, who says he will fight for all Alabamians regardless of political party. Underwood demonstrates this multiple times on his website by loudly praising Republican Kyle South, the district’s former representative, several times on his website. Underwood’s main priorities are expanding healthcare access, improving public schools, and investing in infrastructure.
Democrat John Underwood (Right) brings strong bipartisan credentials to the race as a former cop who served on the force for nearly three decades and as a County Commissioner from blood Red Fayette County. He is expected to outperform Biden’s performance in the heavily Republican District but poor fundraising could hamper him.
However, despite his strong background, Underwood’s goal is virtually impossible in a district that only has a single blue election precinct, which not to mention Biden only carried by a slim 10 vote margin in 2020. Even Doug Jones, a conservative Democrat who ran against an alleged pedophile for one of Alabama’s US Senate Seats in 2017, lost this district by a whopping 55 point margin (77% – 22%) during that election despite winning statewide (Jones also managed to carry only a single election precinct within the district). Underwood’s campaign is even more unlikely to succeed considering that he is Black, running in a heavily white, racially polarized area. Additionally, Underwood was badly outraised by Brinyark, who benefited substantially from outside money from several political action committees (PACs). Brinyark raised $163,380, with most of that money ($110,400) coming from PACs. Underwood on the other hand raised a paltry $5,500 dooming his prospects. Due to his credentials and bipartisan rhetoric Underwood will probably outrun Biden but only marginally given his inability to put up strong fundraising numbers, the high levels of racial polarization in the district, and the likelihood of lower than average black turnout in the special election. Election Forecaster Rating: Solid Republican
Despite winning statewide in the 2017 US Senate Election in Alabama, conservative Democrat Doug Jones got crushed in the 16th District, losing by a whopping 55 percentage points. Jones, who ran against an alleged pedophile, was only able to carry a single election precinct in the district.