Democrat Tom Keen, a decorated 21-year military veteran, is hoping to flip Florida’s 35th State House District in the January 16th, special election. Keen has run as a moderate Democrat in this suburban Orlando district.
Republican State Representative Fred Hawkins, a staunch ally of Republican Governor Ron DeSantis, vacated Florida’s 35th State House District after being selected as the next President of South Florida State College. The 35th State House District is mostly based in the Orlando suburbs in the easternmost portion of Orange County but it also includes heavily rural portions of southeastern Osceola County. The district is fairly diverse with its voting age population as of 2020 being approximately 48% White, 32% Hispanic, 12% Black, 8% Asian, and 2% Native (Please note: the percentages may not add up to 100% due to rounding). In the 2020 Presidential Election, Joe Biden carried this district by a 52% – 47% margin, slightly improving on Hillary Clinton’s 49% – 45% showing in the district during the 2016 Election. However, as a result of the red tsunami that struck the state in the 2022 midterm elections, Governor Ron DeSantis carried this district by a convincing 56%-44% margin over Democrat Charlie Crist. Democrat Val Demings, who represented the Orlando area in Congress also lost by a large 53%-46% margin against Republican Incumbent Marco Rubio in the 2022 US Senate Election in Florida. Due to the strong Republican showing at the top of the ticket, Hawkins was also able to win decisively, defeating his Democratic opponent Rishi Bagga 55%-45%.
Joe Biden carried Florida’s 35th State House District by a narrow 52% – 47% margin in the 2020 Presidential Election. The district covers the easternmost portion of Orange County and the southeasternmost portion of Osceola County.
Erika Booth, an Osceola School Board member, won the GOP nomination after winning 50% of the vote in the GOP primary defeating former congressional candidate Scotty Moore and real estate agent Ken Davenport convincingly. In the general election she will face Tom Keen who defeated Bagga and Marucci Guzman to win the Democratic Nomination. Keen is a former aerospace industry executive who served as a Naval Flight Officer. In the general election, Booth has run as a hardline conservative in the mantra of Ron DeSantis. She has focused primarily on culture war issues that are popular among the Republican base including promising to promote “election integrity” measures, banning “indoctrination” in Florida Schools, and fighting “Joe Biden’s Woke Agenda.” Keen however has run as a moderate, promising to be a pragmatist if elected to the Republican-dominated Florida State House. Keen has also emphasized his status as a decorated military veteran, who served for 21 years. Keen has mainly focused on affordable housing and his support for abortion rights, two issues that could win him some support from across the aisle.
Erika Booth, a member of the Osceola County School Board has run as an ardent conservative in the race to succeed Republican Fred Hawkins, who resigned to take a job as President of South Florida State College.
The special election, which will be held on January 16th, has garnered significant attention given the 35th District’s status as a competitive swing district. The district has not only seen close electoral results but also politically close registration rolls. The largest voter group by party registration in the district are voters with no party registration who number 37,786. This is slightly more than the number of registered Democrats, 37,389, and registered Republicans, 37,155. Tallying early votes and mail-in votes the number of registered Democrats who have voted in the special election thus far is 6,020 compared to 5,402 registered Republicans who have voted and 2,295 voters who lack a party affiliation. However, the number of registered Republicans who vote in the election is expected to increase significantly on election day, as Republicans have a history of turning out in large numbers on election day. As of January 11th Booth had outraised Keen by $323,000 to $121,000 and outspent him by $260,000 to $104,000. However, the Florida House Democratic Campaign Committee has come to the backing of Keen, spending $541,000 in the general election which is a lot more than the Florida House Republican Campaign Committee has spent supporting Booth, which only amounts to $207,000.
Buoyed by a red tsunami that hit the state during the 2022 midterms. Governor Ron DeSantis carried Florida’s 35th State House District by a convincing 56%-44% margin, outperforming Donald Trump significantly in the suburban areas within the district.
The outcome of the race has significant meaning for Florida Democrats who are still trying to rebound from the disastrous 2022 election cycle which saw them lose every statewide office by nearly 20 points and win the fewest number of seats in the Florida Legislature since Reconstruction. The election was only a continuation of the party’s deep decline in the state. Since the year 2012, Democrats have only won one statewide election, Nikki Fried’s 2018 victory in the Commissioner of Agriculture race. Fried, who is no longer in office and was elected in early 2023 to be the Chair of the Florida Democratic Party claims that under her leadership the state party’s fortunes are beginning to look up. The best evidence to date that supports this claim was Democrat Donna Deagan’s upset victory in the 2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Race. Deegan won the mayoral race in Florida’s largest city by 4 percentage points nearly matching Joe Biden’s 5 point victory in an area that usually votes significantly more Republican in state and local elections. Deegan’s victory came only months after Fried was sworn in as party chair and was a stunning turnaround given DeSantis’ 10 point landslide in the city in November 2022. The special election in the ultra-competitive 35th State House District gives Fried and the Florida Democratic Party a chance to demonstrate that this result was not simply a fluke but part of a broader revival of the state party. The high-stakes special election will also be a strong bellwether for the direction of the state in 2024 and will shed light on how competitive the state will be in the 2024 Presidential Election and the 2024 US Senate Election which features Incumbent Rick Scott and former Democratic Congresswoman Debbie Mucarsel-Powell. The election also gives Democrats the opportunity to begin their goal of reducing the size of Republican’s legislative majorities in the state a few months ahead of schedule. Given the importance of the election, Keen has received an immense amount of support from progressive organizations like Planned Parenthood and Moms Demand Action as well as Democratic politicians including Mucarsel-Powell and Congressman Maxwell Alejandro Frost who represents Orlando. Keen was also endorsed by the Orlando Sentinel along with several labor unions including the Florida branch of the Service Employees International Union (SEIU). Surprisingly, while Booth has received the support of many legislative Republicans, Governor Ron DeSantis has not endorsed her campaign. This is probably because if Booth were to lose, in spite of his support, it could harm his Presidential Campaign, which is already in a state of disarray. Election Forecaster Rating: Toss-up
Florida Democratic Party Chair Nikki Fried is hoping Democrats can replicate their success in the 2023 Jacksonville Mayoral Race to the special election in Florida’s 35th State House District. The election is seen as a bellwether for the 2024 Elections in the state.