Kamala Harris sits for an interview in Muscatine, Iowa ahead of the Iowa Caucus during the 2020 Democratic Party Presidential Primaries. Iowa has drifted away from Democrats in recent cycles but a new poll shows Harris narrowing the gap.

Iowa Democrats have experienced a 12 year drought in Federal Races and that is likely to continue in 2024 as Donald Trump is heavily favored in Iowa but a new poll shows a closer race than expected in the state. The poll conducted by Selzer & Co. and sponsored by the Des Moines Register/Mediacom Iowa found Trump leading Vice President Harris 47% to 43%, a four point lead that is only half of the 8 point victory margin Trump registered in the state in 2020. Trump’s lead in the poll is a far cry from his 18 point lead Selzer & Co. found in their June poll. With that being said, Republicans and Democrats are still fairly confident that Trump will win Iowa  considering that neither party has invested any money in the state at the Presidential level. 

While most political forecasters continue to rate the race as Solid/Safe Republican the tightening of Trump’s margin could demonstrate vulnerabilities for down ballot Republicans in Iowa and the Trump campaign in other neighboring states. Of most concern for Republicans will be the two competitive House Races in Iowa: Iowa’s 1st Congressional District and Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District. Iowa’s 3rd Congressional District, which is based in Des Moines and Southern Iowa, backed Trump by less than a point in 2020 and Iowa’s 1st Congressional District, which is based in Southeastern Iowa and includes Davenport and Iowa City, backed Trump by a similarly small three points in 2020. If Trump only wins Iowa by four points it is likely that Kamala Harris is carrying both these districts since they are significantly to the left of the state overall which could endanger the districts Republican incumbents: Zach Nunn and Mariannette Miller-Meeks. Additionally a poor showing in Iowa could spell trouble for the Trump campaign in demographically similar areas in swing states like neighboring Wisconsin.