Congresswoman Michelle Steel, is facing stronger headwinds than originally expected as her opponent threatens her grip on a key constituency in California’s 45th Congressional DIstrict.

At the start of the cycle Michelle Steel was considered one of the safer Biden District Republicans but the district’s partisan lean at the top of the ticket in addition to a strong campaign from her opponent has left her in a dead heat race in the lead up to election day. Long touted as a strong electoral powerhorse by Republicans, Steel entered this year with two big advantages: a split field of Democrats contesting her and a whopping fundraising advantage. FOr much of 2023 it appeared like Democrats would nominate Kim Nguyen-Penaloza a Garden Grove city councilwoman who they hoped could appeal to both Asian and Hispanic voters in a district with a voting age population that is 41% Asian and 27% Hispanic. But several lackluster fundraising quarters prompted Derick Tran, a military veteran and local attorney to enter the race and dispatch Kim Nguyen-Penaloza in a 15.9%-15.6% squeaker. Steel greatly benefited from the divided field and used  it along with her fundraising prowess to take a huge lead in the cash game against Tran. Buoyed by a strong primary performance where she garnered 54.9% of the vote, Steel continued to be viewed as the favorite for most of the election cycle. 

California’s 45th Congressional District backed Joe Biden 52.1% – 46.0% in 2020. A recent USC poll showed Kamala Harris increasing on Biden’s margin, posing a handwind to Steel’s re-election campaign.

In the past two quarters, however, Tran has matched her fundraising numbers and the House Majority PAC has spent significantly supporting his candidacy allowing him to close Steel’s early lead. Tran’s Vietnamese identity has also proved to be a massive boon to his candidacy in a district that is approximately 17% Vietnamese and is home to Little Saigon putting Michelle Steel on defense among a constituency that played a key part in propelling her to a 4.5 point victory in 2022. Tran who is fluent in Vietnamese and has a common Vietnamese last name has been able to use his background to outperform with a group that is particularly more conservative leaning. The possibility of Vietnamese voters backing Donald Trump because of his more conservative stances but Tran because of his Vietnamese identity poses a significant hurdle for Steel who has to overperform Trump’s performance at the top of the ticket to have a chance in a district that backed Joe Biden by 6.5 points in 2020. Steel is quite aware of this problem and has focused excessively on conservative Vietnamese voters in the final weeks of her campaign: her events have featured South Vietnam flags and her ads have sought to red-bait Tran by attempting to tie him to the Chinese Communist Party. Despite these overtures a recent poll by the University of Southern California found her down 44.8% – 43.3% and 47.9% – 46.1% when learners are included. The same poll showed Kamala improving on Joe Biden’s margin in the district, winning 49.5% – 41.2%, posing yet another headwind for Steel. Tran’s unique appeal and Democrat’s strength at the top of the ticket may ultimately prove too difficult for Steel to overcome. As such, Election Forecaster rates this district Tilt Democrat (Flip).

Derek Tran, a Vietnamese military veteran has proved a difficult opponent for Steel particularly among Vietnamese voters who despite leaning more Conservative have shown some willingness to back him because of his identity.