Congresswoman Angie Craig scored an impressive performance in her re-election campaign for Minnesota’s 2nd Congressional District

Congresswoman Angie Craig is on her way back to Washington after putting up an impressive overperformance in her re-election campaign. Craig who was first elected in the blue wave of 2018 was considered a top target for Republicans at the beginning of the cycle and they even recruited a top tier challenger to run against her, but Craig ultimately won comfortably. Craig won in the 2nd Congressional against Joe Tierab, a marine and former federal prosecutor, by a large 56%-42% margin. The 2nd Congressional DIstrict which covers the Southern Minneapolis suburbs and includes all of Dakota, Scott, and Le Sueur Counties along with parts of Washington and Rice Counties. In 2020 Biden carried this district by a margin of 7% points after Trump carried it by less than 1% point in 2016. This year Kamala Harris only won the district by a margin of 5% points meaning that Craig overperformed the top of the ticket by 8% points, a big improvement on previous years where she ran about even or slightly behind the ticket. Craig, a moderate Democrat who is part of the New Democrats, a center-left neoliberal caucus, has built up her brand significantly over the past few years particularly in the more rural areas of the district. While Craig overperformed Harris by nearly 8 points in both suburban Scott and Dakota County in mostly rural Le Sueur by a whopping 14 points. Craig’s strong performance puts her in pole position for a statewide campaign perhaps a gubernatorial run in 2026 given that current Governor Tim Walz may not run for re-election  In the meantime her district, once a volatile swing district that was heavily contested for four election cycles in a row, is probably off as long as she is the incumbent.

A map depicting Angie Craig’s victory courtesy of the New York Times. Craig won suburban Dakota County and nearly won suburban Scott County. She lost Le Sueur but by a margin 14% points closer than Kamala Harris’ loss there.