Rob Bresnahan flipped a Congressional Seat in North Eastern Pennsylvania, an ancestral Democratic area that has trended significantly to the right in the Trump Era.
In a big victory for House Republicans Rob Bresnahan defeated incumbent Democrat Matt Cartwright in Pennslyvania’s highly competitive 8th Congressional District. Cartwright, a partner at a local law firm before being elected to Congress in 2012, had built a strong brand in the district and had managed to outperform even as support for Democrats began to collapse in the district. In 2012 Barack Obama carried the current boundaries of the district, which include much of Northeastern Pennsylvania including Scranton and Wilkes Barre, by 12 percentage points, 56%-43%. But the largely white working-class district saw a pronounced shift to the right during the Trump Era. In 2016 Trump carried the boundaries of the district 53%-44%, a shocking reversal of fortunes that allowed him to carry the state. Even Joe Biden who emphasized his roots by labeling himself as “Scranton Joe” wasn’t able to carry the district in 2020 despite cutting Trump’s margin to just 51%-48%.
Cartwright, however, continued to prove strong, becoming the only Democrat to win in 2016, 2018, 2020, and 2022 in a district that backed Trump twice. Cartwright, the only Progressive Caucus member to represent a Trump district, carved out a unique profile that focused on economic populism and blue-collar progressivism, a brand that made him hard to beat. Republicans undeterred by narrow losses including a 51%-49% loss in 2022 recruited Bresnahan, the CEO of a local construction company who had deep ties to the district. Bresnahan ran a strong campaign and was able to significantly outperform previous Republican nominees in Lackawanna County, home to Scranton, and Luzerne County, home to Wilkes-Barre and Hazleton. In 2022 Cartwright won Lackawanna 59%-41% and lost the Luzern portion only 51-49%. This year however, Bresnahan improved in both of those vote heavy counties by 6% points cutting Cartwright’s margin to just 56%-44% in Lackawanna and expanding the GOP’s margin to 54%-46% in Luzerne, even as the rest of the district remained roughly stagnant. The most decisive factor was arguably Trump’s performance in the district. Trump improved on both his 2016 and 2020 showings by defeating Harris 54%-46% and providing coattails to down ballot Republicans. In the State’s US Senate Race Republican Dave McCormick beat Scranton native Bob Casey 51%-46% demonstrating the strength of the GOP environment that ultimately proved too difficult for Matt Cartwright to overcome. Although this district continues to trend towards the GOP, expect Democrats to contest it in 2026 when popular Governor Josh Shapiro is on the ballot. Shapiro carried the district by a margin in the high single digits during his race for Governor and both of his races for Attorney General and could provide coattails similar to Trump’s. The midterm environment and electorate should also benefit Democrats with Trump now returning to the White House.
A map depicting Rob Bresnahan’s victory over Matt Cartwright, courtesy of the New York Times. Bresnahan cut into Cartwright’s margin in Lackawanna County and expanded upon previous Republican margins in the Luzerne County portion of the district, propelling him to victory.