A map depicting Cumberland County, New Jersey (left) and the county’s precinct level election results from the 2020 Presidential Race (right). Trump flipped Cumberland, becoming the first Republican to win the County since George HW Bush in 1988.
Cumberland County was long a fortress for the South Jersey Democratic Political Machine run by local powerbroker George Norcross III. However, during the Trump era Cumberland, a working class county where 65% of residents don’t have a college degree, shifted sharply towards Republicans. In 2012, Barack Obama defeated Mitt Romney in Cumberland by 24% points (62%-38%), but in 2016 Trump cut into Democrat’s edge, losing the county to Hillary Clinton by only 5% points (51%-46%). That 5-point margin persisted in 2020 even as Joe Biden improved on Hillary Clinton’s popular vote margin by a few points. Crucial to the Democrat’s coalitions is the large numbers of minority voters in Cumberland. As of the 2020 Census Cumberland was approximately 47% white, 35% Hispanic, 20% Black, and 40% Native American. Even as Trump gained significant ground with the county’s white population both Biden and Clinton performed well in Vineland and Bridgeton, two cities that are home to most of Cumberland’s Black and Hispanic populations. However, as exit polls showed Trump drastically improving on his numbers with Hispanic voters he was able to carry Cumberland by 3% points (51%-48%), becoming the first Republican candidate for President to carry the county since George HW Bush in 1988.
Despite the GOP surge at the top of the ticket, Cumberland County Democrats had had their most successful night in years when it came to local countywide elections also known as “row office” elections. Going into the 2024 election Democrats were reeling from heavy losses. The GOP had originally won a 4-3 majority on the County Board of Supervisors in 2022 after flipping two seats in 2021 and in 2022. Then in 2023 they flipped the final 3 seats in a sweep that saw them take a commanding 7-0 majority. Democrats also lost the Sheriff and Surrogate races that year leaving them with just a single countywide elected official, the County Clerk Celeste Riley. The County Clerk, which is tasked with overseeing public lands, elections, and veteran’s services, was up for election this year and Riley became a major GOP target. However, even as Trump carried Cumberland 51%-48%, Riley won re-election by 52%-48% over GOP County Commissioner Victoria Lods. In a slight upset Democrats also flipped back one of the two seats up for election on the County Commision. While GOP Incumbent Antonio Romero defeated former Democratic Commissioner Johnny Capizola by a few hundred votes, former County Sheriff Robert Austino, a Democrat, unseated GOP Incumbent Joseph Sileo Jr. by about 50 votes.
The key to Democrat’s victories this year seem to be due to candidate quality. Riley represented the county as a State Assemblywoman from the 3rd State Legislative District for six years before serving as County Clerk for the past 10 years allowing her to build a bipartisan brand that helped her outrun Kamala Harris. Similarly, Austino’s record as a Vineland police lieutenant who spent fifteen years as Cumberland County sheriff helped distinguish himself from the top of the ticket. Although Republicans underperformed expectations, by winning at least one County Commissioner seat Republicans have secured a majority until at least 2026 because only 2 Republican-held County Commissioner seats are up in 2025. Since Republicans have a 6-1 majority they could afford to lose both of those seats and still retain their majority. The results however are a good start for Democrats as they seek to win back power in the once reliably blue county.
Cumberland County Clerk Celeste Riley (left) won re-election and Former Cumberland County Sheriff Robert Austino (right) won a seat on the County Commision even as Trump carried the county at the Presidential level.