Craig Coughlin, Speaker of the New Jersey General Assembly, at the Groundbreaking for the New Portal North Bridge, August 1, 2022. (Photo: New Jersey Globe). Democrats’ majority will once again be tested in 2025 with every State Assembly District being up for election. 

Three Developments to Watch in New Jersey’s 2025 Elections Craig Coughlin, Speaker of the New Jersey General Assembly, at the Groundbreaking for the New Portal North Bridge, August 1, 2022. (Photo: New Jersey Globe). Democrats’ majority will once again be tested in 2025 with every State Assembly District being up for election. After one of the most tumultuous years in the history of New Jersey politics, which saw the demise of the county line system, the conviction of a sitting United States senator, the indictment of the state’s most notorious power broker, the defeat of the Governor’s wife and the entire establishment by a little known Congressman, and the closest Presidential Race the state has witnessed since 1992, 2025 is expected to be a little quieter, but not significantly. 2025 brings about the first Gubernatorial Race without the county line, which has led to large and intense primaries for both party’s nominations. The Democratic field contains two sitting members of Congress, the mayors of New Jersey’s two largest cities, a former State Senate President, and the president of one of the state’s most powerful labor unions. The Republican Primary is also contentious and includes a moderate state senator, a well-known radio host, the nominee for Governor in 2021, and a former state senator who pulled off one of the most shocking upsets of the decade back in 2021. While both primaries and the general election will be covered in later editions of Election Forecaster, the focus of this article will be covering three possible developments to watch in New Jersey’s down-ballot elections. 

Although State Senators are not term-limited until 2027, 2025 offers plenty of down-ballot races including county row office elections, state assembly elections, and a special election for a vacated State Senate seat. Some key themes to watch in 2025 will be whether the South Jersey Democratic machine will continue to climb back to power, whether Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters are transferable to Republicans in off-year down-ballot contests, and whether Democrats can expand their electoral footprint to the suburbs in state and local races. Democrats dominated South Jersey’s elected offices for much of the 2010s but Trump’s rise fueled a Republican surge across much of the region, culminating in a red landslide in 2021. Democrats slowly recovered in parts of the region, particularly in Gloucester County, but 2025 will be another test of Democrats’ resurgence. Trump’s gains with Hispanic voters allow Republicans to assemble a successful statewide coalition. If Republicans could match Trump’s performance with Hispanic voters in North Jersey along with Jack Ciattarelli’s 2021 performance in the suburbs and South Jersey it would make a Republican victory statewide plausible.  It would also make a Republican legislative majority attainable since it could put multiple previous solidly Democratic Districts in play in Middlesex, Bergen, and Passaic counties. 2025 will be a crucial test of whether these gains with Hispanic voters were a one-time event or a sign of a long-term trend. Finally, an off-year election with a Republican in the White House presents a unique opportunity for Democrats to capitalize on their gains with suburban voters in state and local elections. While Democrats have frequently won places like Morris County at the federal level they have yet to win a major state or local race. 2025 will serve as a barometer of the direction New Jersey will take in the next couple of years after 2024, which will raise significant questions about the level of support the Democratic Party enjoys in the state.