Rob Bresnahan was highly touted after his 2024 victory, just two years later he finds himself in a battle to preserve his political career.

Matt Cartwright’s loss in 2024 was supposed to spell the end for Democratic Party control over PA-8. This working class district used to be reliably Democrat, supporting Obama by double digits twice, but has since drifted right, voting for Trump three times. 2024 was particularly brutal for Democrats here, as Trump won by a whopping 9% points, his largest margin yet in this district. Perhaps most telling, though, was Democratic Senator Bob Casey’s loss in his home district, where he became the first Democratic Senate candidate to lose this seat in 20 years. Given that massive shift at the top of the ticket, Republicans were finally able to defeat longtime incumbent Matt Cartwright who had held onto this seat in spite of Trump’s continued victories here. Even the tight 1% point loss Cartwright suffered to Republican Rob Bresnahan seemed to represent the end of the Democrats’ chances here in the future. But a combination of a blue environment, a strong Democratic candidate, and incumbent Bresnahan’s prolific insider trading have brought the race back into the fray. Even as the Democratic nominee, Paige Cognetti, is not as prolific an overperformer as Cartwright she has long been touted as a rising Democratic star after becoming Mayor of Scranton in 2019. Even as Bresnahan has built an impressive amount of backing from organized labor his first term has been marred by stock trades that appear to reflect insider trading. Essentially any candidate advantage Bresnahan had built through organized labor was traded away leaving him more vulnerable to the whims of the national environment. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro carried this district by 9% points in 2022, but given the right-trending nature of the district it wouldn’t be surprising if he couldn’t increase his margin here despite being on track to do so statewide. That being said, a 9% delta would still be very difficult for a freshman Republican to overcome, leaving Cognetti as the narrow favorite. PA-8 is Lean Democrat (Flip).