Nicki Burke (pictured above), the last remaining Democrat to hold countywide elected office in New Jersey’s Salem County, will not seek re-election in 2025. Salem, nestled in South Jersey is the smallest county in the state and has trended heavily to the GOP in the Trump Era. 

Nicki Burke, the longtime County Surrogate of Salem County recently announced her retirement, a decision that could finally complete Republicans’ quest to gain full control of Salem County government. Burke, the last remaining Democrat elected countywide in Salem, was motivated to retire in part because of the massive shift to the right the county has taken in recent years.

Salem County was once a key bellwether that was within reach of either party. In four consecutive Presidential Elections, Salem County was decided by single digits backing Gore in 2000, Bush in 2004, and then Obama in 2008 and 2012. But in 2016, this largely blue-collar county swung heavily towards Trump who won it by 15% points, becoming the first Republican candidate for President since 1988 to carry it by double digits. Trump won it by a slightly lower 13% point margin in 2020 before expanding his margin in 2024 to over 19% points.

Republicans have capitalized on this shift to the right. Even as Democrats had a majority on the County Commission as recently as 2017, Republicans have had a 5-0 majority since 2022. While Democrats were able to keep races tight and even win a couple during Trump’s first term, Democratic performances collapsed in county races once the environment changed to favor Republicans during Biden’s term. This caused Democrats to lose the few seats they held onto when Trump was in office. In fact, during Biden’s Presidency, no Democratic candidate for countrywide office got within single digits of winning Salem with most losing by around 20% points. 

A reelection bid by Burke would have been difficult given the county’s long-term trend towards Republicans and the fact that she has not faced voters since 2020. Nevertheless, it would have given Democrats a fighting chance to maintain control of their last countrywide elected office. Burke, who served as deputy County Surrogate under a Republican before winning the top post in 2005, had a strong electoral track record. She maintained bipartisan popularity and her margin of victory in the pre-Trump era never dipped below 10% points, even in Republican-leaning years like 2010. However, she faced significantly more difficulty in her most recent campaign, the only one that took place during the Trump Era. In 2020 she only narrowly held on 51%-49% winning mostly due to split ticket voting. She managed to run 15% points ahead of Joe Biden and several points ahead of a Democratic incumbent on the County Commission who was defeated. 

While Republicans will likely face a backlash in 2025 since they hold the White House, they will most likely be able to overcome the national environment because they have a strong pool of candidates to run as a result of their 5-0 majority on the County Commission. The Democratic bench is comparatively weak, washed away by the back-to-back red waves the county experienced during the Biden Presidency. This makes Republicans heavy favorites to gain the Surrogate’s office and win complete control of Salem County. 

Election Forecaster Rating: Likely Republican

Salem County has swung heavily toward Republicans in the Trump Era. Barack Obama won Salem County 50%-49% in 2012 (pictured by the precinct map above). In 2020, Donald Trump won Salem County 55%-43% (pictured by the precinct map on the below).