Pat Herrity, member of the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors, is sworn into office after winning re-election to his Springfield-based district.

After winning all three statewide elected offices in Virginia in 2021 Republicans are hoping to repeat that same feat this year. While that task may be challenging for the GOP given the significantly bluer national environment and Virginia’s unique exposure to DOGE’s Federal Government layoffs, they will no doubt be boosted by Governor Glenn Youngkin’s strong job approval and favorability ratings. While Youngkin himself won’t be on the ballot, Republicans have assembled a strong slate of candidates who will campaign in his image. Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears is running for Governor, Jason Miyares is running for re-election as Attorney General, and Pat Herrity, a strong recruit, is running to succeed Sears as Lieutenant Governor. 

A moderate pro-business Republican with an impressive electoral record in one of the state’s bluest counties, Herrity has long been seen as a top prospect for statewide office. He was first elected back in 2007 to a Springfield-based district on the Fairfax County Board of Supervisors and has continuously won re-election even in difficult years for his party. In 2019, he held on even as the state had a large blue wave and he was successful again in 2023, this time winning by double digits even as Democrats had a relatively successful year gaining control of the State House and maintaining their majority in the State Senate. This is in spite of his district’s reliably blue nature. In 2020 Joe Biden carried the district by a large 65%-33% margin and in 2024 Kamala Harris won the district by a similarly large 61%-36% margin. Even Glenn Youngkin wasn’t able to come close in the district during the 2021 red wave, losing it to Terry McAuliffe by a 59%-41% margin.

Herrity’s secret: a moderate streak on social policies and an emphasis on fiscal restraint and fiscal conservatism. This approach has won him the support of Democrats and left-leaning outlets in addition to Republicans. In 2023, for instance, he received the support of Democratic State Senator Chap Petersen and the Washington Post. If he emphasizes this moderate playbook, which is not too dissimilar from Glenn Youngkin’s pitch, he may find success in the general election. However, he still faces challenges including a fractured GOP Primary Field which contains many candidates who will most likely run significantly to the right of him. All things considered, his candidacy ensures Republicans have a top choice for November assuming they choose wisely. Election Forecaster Rating: Tossup

(Top) A precinct map depicting the 2021 Gubernatorial results in the Springfield-based Fairfax County Board of Supervisors District. (Bottom) A precinct map depicting results from the 2024 Presidential election in the Springfield District.