Special Election – Virginia’s 7th State Senate District
Aaron Rouse after being sworn in as the next member of the Virginia State Senate. Rouse flipped a State Senate District in the Hampton Roads area in the January 10th special election.
The first major election of 2023 took place in the 7th State Senate District in Hampton Roads, Virginia. Republican Jennifer Kiggans had vacated the district after successfully winning a promotion to Congress. In 2019, Kiggans had only won re-election to this district against Democrat Cheryl Turpin by less than 1 percentage point (50.4% – 49.5%) or a mere 511 votes. Moreover, in 2020, Joe Biden carried this district by approximately 10 percentage points (53.9% – 43.7%), improving on Hillary Clinton’s narrow 46.8% – 46.5% victory in this district. Democrats were encouraged by these results and saw the district as an opportunity to reverse the poor fortune that they had suffered in this region following Biden’s inauguration. In 2021, buoyed by Glenn Youngkin’s strong performance at the top of the ticket, Republicans flipped three general assembly districts in the Hampton Roads region, representing almost half of the gains that Republicans made in the entire chamber. This is despite the fact that only a year earlier, Biden had carried these three districts by large margins: 9 percentage points, 13 percentage points, and 14 percentage points. These three districts ultimately put Republicans over the top in the chamber. Then, in 2022, Kiggans defeated Democratic Incumbent Elaine Luria in the 2nd Congressional District by a whopping 4 percentage points despite the fact that the seat had backed Biden by 2 percentage points in 2020. The special election for the state senate seat that Kiggans was vacating was seen as a bellwether for the region at large ahead of Virginia’s legislative elections in November. The election was also seen as vitally important for determining the legality of abortion in the state. Following Kiggans’ resignation, Democrats held a 21-18 majority in the state senate with Kiggans’ seat vacant. If Republicans were to hold the seat in the special election, Democrats would retain only a one seat majority. However, Joe Morrissey, a conservative Democratic state senator, had indicated that he would be willing to vote with Republicans in the chamber to restrict abortion rights in that state. This meant that if Republicans held Kiggans’ seat, there would be 20 votes to restrict abortion rights in the state senate, enough to allow Lieutenant Governor Winsome Sears, a conservative Republican, to cast a tie-breaking vote in favor of restrictions. Republicans already controlled the Governor’s office and the General Assembly, so Democrats saw the special election as the only way to stop an abortion ban from being passed in Richmond.
Democrats recruited a top-tier candidate in Virginia Beach City Council At-large Member Aaron Rouse, a former NFL player who played for the Green Bay Packers and the New York Giants. Republicans also nominated a strong candidate in Kevin Adams, a US Navy Veteran who served for 26 years and achieved the rank of lieutenant commander. Both candidates ran solid campaigns and each raised about $1,000,000. Rouse’s campaign focused on protecting abortion rights and other progressive issues, such as raising the minimum wage to $15 an hour and expanding healthcare access. Rouse received significant support from the state’s Democratic establishment, with big figures like US Senator Tim Kaine, former Governor Ralph Northam, and former US Representative Elaine Luria all supporting his campaign. Luria even attended his campaign launch.
In contrast, Adams’ campaign focused on fighting crime and reducing taxes. Adams received significant support from Governor Glenn Youngkin, with whom he held a rally. However, his attempts to emulate Youngkin, who had carried the district by 4 percentage points in 2021, ultimately fell short. On January 10th, Rouse defeated Adams by nearly 2 percentage points (50.8% – 49.1%) or 696 votes, flipping the seat from Republican to Democrat and extending Democrats’ majority in the Virginia State Senate to 22-18. The result was a huge victory for pro-choice groups, which spent tens of thousands of dollars backing Rouse. Democratic Flip From Republican.
Other Elections
Special Election – Georgia’s 7th State House of Representatives District
Incumbent Republican David Ralston, the Speaker of the Georgia State House of Representatives, died. The 7th District backed Donald Trump by 63 percentage points (81.2% – 17.9%) in 2020, so Republicans were almost guaranteed to win it. Originally, the leading competitor was Republican Sheree Ralston, the widow of David Ralston, who had the backing of much of the state’s Republican political establishment including Governor Brian Kemp. Ralston led the field receiving 45% of the vote in the first round but finished below the 50% +1 vote needed to avoid a runoff. Investment banker Johnny Chastain, another Republican, advanced to a second round with Ralston by managing 39% of the vote. In the second round, Chastain, powered by a “grassroots campaign”, went on to defeat Ralston 52.8% – 47.2% in a shocking upset. Republican Hold.
Special Election – Georgia’s 11th State Senate District
Incumbent Republican Dean Burke resigned to take a job as chief medical officer at the Georgia Department of Community Health. Georgia’s 11th State House District backed Trump by 29% points (64.2% – 35.0%) in 2020 and wasn’t expected to be competitive in the special election. Republican Sam Watson, a member of the Georgia State House of Representatives, defeated Democrat Mary Weaver-Anderson, a nonprofit founder, by a large 76.0% – 23.0% margin. Republican Hold.
Special Election – Georgia’s 172nd State House of Representatives District
Incumbent Republican Sam Watson resigned to run in the special election to fill the vacant 11th State Senate District, following the resignation of State Senator Dean Burke. The 172nd District backed Trump by 45 percentage points (72.1% – 27.1%) in 2020 virtually ensuring Republicans would keep the seat. Only one candidate, Republican Charles Cannon, a West Point Graduate who runs a forestry and timber business filed to run for this seat. He went uncontested in the special election. Republican Hold.
Special Election – Mississippi’s 23rd State House of Representatives District
Incumbent Republican Charles Beckett vacated Mississippi’s 23rd State House of Representatives District to accept a role as Executive Director for the Mississippi Public Utilities Staff. The 23rd District backed Trump by approximately 48 percentage points (73.6% – 25.5%) in 2020, so Republicans were not at any real risk of losing this seat. Two Republicans, Perry Van Bailey, a farmer, and Andrew Stepp, a pharmacist and small business owner, advanced to a second round of voting after no candidate received the 50% +1 vote needed to avoid a runoff. Despite the fact that Stepp outpaced Van Bailey 48.4% – 38.2% in the first round, Van Bailey defeated Stepp in the second round 50.1% – 49.9%, a meager 7 vote margin. Republican Hold.
Special Election – Pennsylvania’s 27th State Senate District
Republican State Senator John Gordner vacated Pennsylvania’s 27th State Senate District to become Counsel to Kim Ward, a fellow Republican and President Pro Tempore of the Pennsylvania State Senate. Republican Lynda Schlegel Culver, a member of the State House of Representatives from the 108th District, faced Democrat Patricia Lawton, an educator and an administrator. The 27th State Senate District backed Trump by 36 percentage points in 2020 (67.2% – 31.4%) and Culver narrowly exceeded Trump’s margin winning 68.7% – 31.3%. Republican Hold.
Special Election – Virginia’s 35th General Assembly District
Incumbent Democrat Mark Keam vacated this seat to become Deputy Assistant Secretary for Travel and Tourism within the International Trade Administration. Virginia’s 35th General Assembly District, based in Fairfax County, supported Joe Biden by 40 percentage points (68.9% – 28.6%). Democrats nominated progressive Holly Seibold who ran on her experience as an educator, a small business owner, and an activist. Republicans nominated Monique Baroudi who ran on conservative positions on education in an attempt to channel Republican Glenn Youngkin. Baroudi practically matched Youngkin’s 35 percentage point loss in the district, losing only 67.7% – 32.2%. Democrat Hold.
Special Election – Virginia’s 24th General Assembly District
Republican Incumbent Ronnie R. Campbell died of cancer. This triggered a special election in the heavily rural 24th General Assembly District which had backed Trump in 2020 by 36 percentage points (67.1% – 31.2%). Republican Ellen Campbell, the widow of Ronnie R. Campbell, defeated Democrat Jade Harris, the Vice Mayor of Glasgow, Virginia, by a smaller 62.5% – 37.3% margin. Republican Hold.