Republican Incumbent Scott Perry is the underdog in a rematch against Democrat Janelle Stelson after his narrow 2024 victory.

The Democratic Party possesses pretty good odds in PA-10, which features a rematch from 2024 between Republican Incumbent Scott Perry and Democrat Janelle Stelson. This district is located in Central Pennsylvania and is centered around Harrisburg and its suburbs as well as York. The district has yet to vote for a Democratic Presidential candidate in this century but the Republican’s advantage here is typically narrow. In 2024 Trump managed to carry the district by 6% points, but the Congressional race was far closer with only 1% point separating Perry and Stelson. The candidates have treated the rematch similarly to the way they did in 2024 with Stelson, a former Republican, running as a moderate and Perry, a member of the Freedom Caucus, running as a staunch conservative. Both candidates have also continued to tap into their strong biographies on the campaign trail. Stelson was a well-known news anchor in Central Pennsylvania for decades which has given her high favorability among voters, while Perry has emphasized his extensive military service, including his deployment in Operation Iraqi Freedom and his rise to the rank of Brigadier General after nearly 40 years of service. The only major difference between this campaign and the previous one is the national environment which has gotten a lot bluer. Democratic Governor Josh Shapiro carried this district by 12% points in 2022 and while Perry was able to win comfortably in that cycle it was mostly down to running against an unknown and poorly funded Democrat. After barely surviving in 2024 he is the underdog in 2026. PA-10 is Lean Democrat (Flip).