Republican Incumbent Brian Fitzpatrick is facing the most difficult challenge of his career in 2026 after strong past performances.

Pennsylvania’s 1st Congressional D remains a very tight contest despite the blue environment and the left leaning nature of the district which narrowly supported Harris in 2024. That is mostly owing to the strength of Republican Brian Fitzpatrick who has created a distinctive brand in this suburban district centered in Bucks County. Fitzpatrick is consistently rated as one of the most bipartisan members of Congress and one of the most moderate Republicans in Washington. Amplifying his moderate credentials are the fact that he was the only Republican to vote against the passage of the Big Beautiful Bill in the House and the support he has received in his re-election campaign which includes endorsements from organized labor, gun-control groups, environmental groups, and former West Virginia Democratic Senator Joe Manchin. In 2024, despite Harris’ narrow win Fitzpatrick easily won re-election by 13% points. In 2026, however, Democrats who are running a credible candidate in Bucks County Commissioner Bob Harvie have made the district a top priority as they believe the blue environment represents their best chance to finally defeat Fitzpatrick. In 2022 Josh Shapiro carried this district by approximately 20% points and he will likely increase his margin here in 2026. But the change in the topline number Shapiro gets isn’t what is causing the most concern for Fitzpatrick, it’s the way in which Shapiro has campaigned here. In 2022, Fitzpatrick won by 9% points despite Shapiro’s 20% point victory capitalizing on an abundance of split ticket voters. In 2026 Shapiro tried to reduce the number of these voters by coming to the district consistently to campaign alongside Harvie ensuring the gap between the Congressional race and the Gubernatorial race shrinks compared to where it was in 2022. While it may appear to be the perfect storm for Democrats to finally flip this seat (one of only three that voted for Harris and elected a Republican member of Congress), Fitzpatrick also survived in the blue wave of 2018 when he was similarly a top Democratic target. He also has taken the campaign very seriously and has done a substantial amount to try and bolster his moderate image in the past two years. He remains a very narrow favorite but a Harvie win would not be much of a surprise. PA-1 is Tilt Republican.